The Kuban State Medical University
Krasnodar, Krasnodar, Russian Federation
Pandemics occur according to the epidemiology laws. However, in the early stages, there are additional environmental factors and characteristics of the population genetics in each particular region. These factors can accelerate the development of a local epidemic, as well as increase its severity and mortality rate. In the 20th century, influenza pandemics occurred at the maximums of solar activity, in the 19th and 21st centuries influenza pandemics were only at the maximums and minimums of solar activity. The current pandemic of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurs during the general minimum solar activity (CA). Peculiarity of coronavirus pandemic is the significant variability in the number of deaths per 1 million people in different countries. The maximum mortality rates are observed in fairly prosperous countries with a high level of development and organization of medicine. The paradoxical difference in mortality (more than 5-15 times) requires a search for factors that are not related to epidemiological measures and medical care in a particular country. The article considers three main modulating factors that ensure the conditions for differentiation of the severity of a pandemic in different countries. Namely: the gene - the geographical distribution of the population, the dynamics of solar activity and galactic cosmic rays, and the temperature regime of the environment. Most severe course of COVID-19 and the highest mortality rate are characteristic of countries with the dominant haplogroup R1b (Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Great Britain, and the USA). The related haplogroup R1a (Germany, Russia, Iran) is characterized by the rapid spread of coronavirus with a large number of asymptomatic patients and low mortality. In conditions of a global minimum of SA, a twofold increase in the number of pandemics is expected in the next 30 years (every 5-6 years instead of 10-11 years) with pronounced genogeographic differences in the development of local epidemics.
influenza pandemics, SARS-CoV-2, haplogroups R1b and R1a, extremes of solar activity, ultraviolet radiation, cosmic rays
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